The Evolution of eCommerce: A Look at the Past Decade

The state of eCommerce has come a long way in just the past ten years, and things have changed in digital marketing as well. 

This short post will cover some of the major shifts that have occurred in that timeframe, as well as some changes that are transforming the digital landscape through the present era. 

The Rise of eCommerce: 2010-2020

Let’s flash back to 2010. It’s hard to think that this was almost 15 years ago at this point. There was eCommerce way back then, but less than 5% of retail sales went through a website. 

It wasn’t so long ago that there weren’t even that many eCommerce-only sites like Amazon, eBay, Temu, and Alibaba, and to be sure, some of these (like Amazon and eBay) actually did exist before 2010. But it has only been in the last ten years that many of these eCommerce websites got off the ground. 

Early in the history of eCommerce, sales were stymied by old habits. Shoppers like to interact with products before buying, and the age-old “way” to buy things was at established, brick and mortar outlets. Even the expression “to go shopping” implies a transitive action; physically going somewhere before making a purchase. 

There were also a lot of roadblocks in the early days of eCommerce. For one, there just wasn’t a wealth of websites dedicated to eCommerce. In the early days, there were few (to no) platforms dedicated to eCommerce. Consider that Shopify and BigCommerce only hit the scene in 2006 and 2009, respectively. They existed, but they were new, and they were nascent. Volusion was one of the first, on the scene in 1999. But Volusion, though it’s eCommerce-centric, is not as easy to use as a SaaS platform and was fairly limiting. 

Consider also that transacting used to be much harder back in the past. You can’t pay with cash or even a check through a website, and we’ve only developed unique, easy to implement and use payment gateways and processors like Google Wallet, PayPal and Apple Pay in the past couple years. In 2010, there really weren’t any user-friendly payment processors or payment gateways.

So these things, in sum, also contributed to the slow rise of eCommerce as contrasted to the generally meteoric rise of internet communications. 

There were other inhibitors, too. One is simply that old habits die hard. People like to actually shop for things, and even in the modern era, with AR and VR, shopping online is fairly impersonal. 

On top of that, it used to be that there just wasn’t that much access or accessibility in the realm of eCommerce. In many, many ways, it was easier to go to a local store than it was to shop on the internet. 

That paradigm shifted strongly with the onset of the coronavirus. 

Coronavirus and the eCommerce “Revolution”

While hard to believe it was almost 5 years ago now, when the world “shut down” as a result of the coronavirus, and many businesses started working remotely, as a result of draconian impositions by local and regional governments, many businesses had no option but to start operating solely online as opposed to in person.

While a completely artificial factor, the result was that it did force some businesses to start selling online, just as it forced consumers to start shopping online. 

And, while the political and medical responses to the disease were holistically disastrous, the (potentially unintentional) effect on eCommerce was one of stellar growth. 

As an illustration, eCommerce sales in 2019 totaled about 540 billion. By 2022, that figure had risen to about 944 billion, nearly double. 

The value of all eCommerce sales is projected to grow to almost 1.8 trillion by 2028. If that projection holds, the total value of eCommerce transactions will have more than tripled, nearly quadrupled, in the space of less than a decade.

AI, AR, and VR in Personalizing the Online Shopping Experience 

It should go without saying that there have been many contributors to the growth of eCommerce and I do not mean to insinuate that its rise and subsequent growth in the past few years have been completely artificial, or insignificant. 

But with that said, it’s also the case that certain, select technological developments have also eliminated some of the barriers that conventionally kept consumers out of the eCommerce market. 

Consider the rise of AI (artificial intelligence), AR (augmented reality) and VR (virtual reality) in simulating a more realistic online shopping experience. 

AI is a bit more nascent, but AI models are increasingly being used by consumers to help them find information (and potentially products) and even if that trend ends up petering off, eCommerce platforms themselves can leverage artificial intelligence for personalized marketing – such as in the form of “recommended” products that increase conversions. 

With respect to AR and VR, which have been around marginally longer than AI but the effects of which are easier to scale with respect to the user experience, these tools are making a much bigger impact, cumulatively, on the online shopping experience. 

Consider a hypothetical experiment. Traditionally, consumers would shop for items like furniture and clothing in person. It’s easy to see why – you can take measurements of a sofa, for instance, but it’s impossible to know what it actually looks like until you can see it. And forget seeing what it will look like in your home. 

As for clothing, the answer to why consumers have conventionally shopped in person (and why many still do) should be obvious. You won’t know what something will look like on you until it’s, you know, on you. Literally. 

But with AR and VR, there are new tools emerging that offer 360° views of products and which are more interactive than ever before. And even if that were not the case, there are visualizers on the market nowadays that let you “try on” clothing and see what furniture will look like in a simulated view of your home, before you ever buy. 

Are augmented and virtual reality completely replacing the value of in-person shopping? Certainly not. But what can be said without a shred of doubt is that they are increasingly eliminating the barriers that some shoppers have to buying online. 

The Evolution of Search Engine Optimization 

Notwithstanding all of the changes in consumer behavior that have already been fronted by this article, there have been significant changes to eCommerce marketing strategies in the past ten years or so, as well. 

Take, for instance, SEO, which is still considered (by most digital marketers) to be the most important digital marketing channel of all, the most sustainable, the only one that’s entirely without restrictions, and the option that (in almost all cases) offers the highest conversion rate and return on investment. 

But the SEO of 2024 is not what the SEO of 2014 was, and it most definitely is not what the SEO of 2010 was (or earlier).

While SEO is still fundamentally about making a domain (or, in some instances, a specific page) more attractive to search engines, SEO in 2024 is more about optimizing the website for UX. I mean to say, SEO is now more about the user than it is about the search engine. 

Consider, for instance, that Google recently formally announced that user engagement metrics like time on page and pages per session are now officially going to be counted as ranking factors. While many digital marketing folk (myself included) have suspected as much for a long time, it was not officially a “truth” of search engine optimization. 

It makes sense why Google would start doing this – if it hasn’t already been doing so for years. Clearly, a user that spends more time on a page and ultimately clicks through to another page is getting value from the experience. Some aspect of search intent is definitely being met, and that’s the whole point of Google. 

These are also things that can’t be “faked” for lack of a better term. As digital marketers, we can do keyword research, we can optimize page titles, we can compress image files and make websites faster. But there are limits.

So what we can’t do? We can’t force users to spend more time on a page that is boring or fluffy and doesn’t contain the information or content the user came for. In order to do that, the page must be truly optimized for the user experience, which arises largely from a pleasant display, responsive design, and of course, content and copy that engages and informs. It takes a true industry expert (or something close) to do so. 

And the truth is, you can be an expert in SEO, but unless you’re an expert in the client’s vertical, it’s hard to engage and inform. That’s why someone like me has been able to write authoritative posts like “How to Advertise in the Gun Industry” and “Cigar Store Marketing,” and “How to Write to Get Featured in a Google AI Overview,” but why I shy away from some topics and industries on which (or with which) I am not as informed. I won’t show my full hand; you get the picture. 

Anyway, the point is that SEO has evolved quite a lot, perhaps more than any other digital marketing channel. There was a time when tactics prevailed that would be completely unacceptable today. 

What are now known today as “black hat tactics” and which might otherwise be categorized as “gaming” the system, not only will no longer work, but will result in pretty harsh penalties for those that get caught trying. 

It used to be that you could just stuff a bunch of keywords in title tags and in really thin, valueless page “copy” and you would get catapulted to the top of page one.

Today, you need to publish useful, actionable, engaging content. There is still an element of keyword optimization but in many ways it is secondary to the value of good copy. 

Changing Social Media Marketing and the Rise of Influencers 

In 2010, the only social medium we really had was Facebook. How times have changed. While Facebook is still huge, platforms like Instagram, Pinterest, and TikTok (especially the latter) have really gained ground. 

These latter three – which are largely focused on image and visibility, have enabled users to pose as “experts” in certain industries – or, as you have probably heard them called, influencers. 

Of course, I don’t mean to suggest that all influencers are charlatans. The vast majority, perhaps, are, but there are certainly some that truly understand their industry and are experts in their own right. 

This is highly valuable to brands that leverage their credibility, because social media marketing enables fast-track visibility that SEO cannot offer, and it has in many ways upended the conventional digital marketing paradigm. 

Ten years ago, a digital marketing expert would have told you that (basically) all digital marketing could be condensed into PPC or SEO. Those are still important channels, but through influencer marketing, brands can now buy credibility (and visibility) in ways they could not have done in even the recent past. 

I expect that these trends will continue to shape eCommerce into the near future, though I can’t rightly or exactly predict the ways in which they will do so.

The Near Future: eCommerce in the Next 5 to 10 Years

All that’s left now is to explore some of the ways in which eCommerce is expected to grow (and how) in the next few years. 

First, I’ll start with an estimate. Shopify seems to think that the total value of eCommerce in 2025 will reach $4.8 trillion. Whether or not that’s going to pan out is anyone’s guess, but if it holds, it would represent a substantial increase. 

Here are some trends that are expected to continue to define eCommerce in the coming years. 

• AR and VR are expected to continue to personalize the online shopping experience, to make it more realistic and immersive, and to break down more and more barriers to buying online. 
• Omnichannel marketing, or marketing through multiple channels while maintaining a consistent message and brand position, is expected to become more central to a unified user experience. 
• Subscription models, which minimize involvement on behalf of the buyer and which represent passive revenue streams for the merchant, are expected to account for a larger share of the market in the near future.
• Video marketing is expected to become more prevalent in the coming years, though whether that will take the form of video marketing on conventional platforms like YouTube, or through social media like TikTok, is anyone’s guess. There could also be a new platform on the horizon that has not taken off yet but which will leverage video marketing. 
• One trend that’s expected to shape eCommerce, although this might influence the broader retail market, is one on “deinfluencing” or a trend in informing consumers about which products not to buy, either because they are low quality or because they are not sustainable. Either way, this requires manufacturers to place a serious emphasis on quality manufacturing processes and brand management. 
• Short term financing and BNPL (buy now, pay later) models are expected to make eCommerce transactions more accessible, enabling more consumers to take part in online shopping.
• It might sound crazy, but my research is also indicating that “word of mouth” marketing is expected to make a resurgence. When I was in school for marketing, we called this “buzz” and I remember being told it was the most powerful advertising of all, because it is credible and inherently personal. Funny that something so old and so patently non-digital by nature is expected to have a marked impact on eCommerce, but hey, I’ve seen, heard, and learned weirder things. 

All in all, anything I can say about the presumed shifts in the eCommerce marketplace are conjectural at best, but given the latent trajectory of the overall online industry, it’s safe to say that growth will continue for the foreseeable future. It’s just too easy to buy online, and there’s too much selection, for consumers to revert entirely to in-person purchasing.